Module 6 Summary: Probability, Randomness, and Variation

What You Practised

You practised how to build intuition for chance, repeated trials, noise, and signal.

Keep These Ideas

• Probability is about long-run chance, not certainty on the next attempt.
• Small blocks can look very different even when the process has not changed.
• Larger repeated trials usually give a steadier estimate.

Writing Habit

The 10-attempt blocks vary a lot, so the short-run result should be treated as random variation unless more evidence supports a real change.

Before Moving On

You are ready for the next module when you can explain the module idea without reading the answer key and can name the main unsafe claim to avoid.